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Morgan Feroli: double
This reporter recent interview, he said, four trillion stimulus package largely to promote the economy of China, China is expected to return next year double-digit economic growth.
Feroli the country for a period of time have taken significant measures to stabilize the market and the effect of stimulating the economy, again as Lehman Brothers collapse of large institutions such as the risk has been greatly diminished. From this perspective, the crisis financial, the worst has passed.
However, the current approach has become the real economy. He believes that the global economy a recession may have arisen. Of course, the recession can not be said here is that all countries have two quarters of negative growth, only that the situation would be slower.
"Our forecast is more optimistic than the second half of next year, a moderate recovery of the U.S. economy. Other countries may be about the same situation. "
JP Morgan expects the second half of next year, the U.S. economy grew 2.5% in the first half can be a negative growth of 1% in the fourth quarter of this year can be a negative growth of 4%.
Feroli said, in response to the current crisis, monetary policy, the United States has a very limited space. Others, like Britain, like the United States might have to cut rates to very low levels.
The important thing is that currently there are financial incentives for continued growth. Feroli said China has made, the United States is likely that the new president took office in the coming years to launch the second economic stimulus package, the size of 1.5 trillion.
China launched the economic stimulus package, said Feroli, I think this stimulus package will do much to promote the economy of China, to help achieve growth strong economic.
"Our expectation is that the first quarter of next year, China's economy may grow 7.9% in the second quarter was 9.7%, the third quarter and the quarter was 10.1% and 10.5%. However, we expect the fourth quarter of this year, China's economy alone could rise 4.1%. "
The outlook for financial markets, Feroli that followed the stock market will continue to digest the negative news on the economy, economy, stock market weakness will contain anywhere. Market volatility will continue. In U.S. stocks, the market values can also be new lows. "Although we have been very close to the bottom, but is there still the possibility of further decline."
For oil prices, Feroli said earlier this year, despite the poor performance of the global economy, but oil prices continues to increase alarmingly. In contrast, the current oil price seems more reasonable number, of course, to some extent some or exaggerated. Currently inhibit the increase in oil prices is mainly demand. He said the economic fundamentals of the situation, oil prices are likely within a year $ 65.
Mention of dollars, the dollar Feroli recent strength for two main reasons: first, the weak dollar this is a spike at the beginning of retaliation. Because in the summer, the market also bearish on the dollar, on the other hand, we had problems on the U.S. downturn economy is that it contains, but I think I was in Europe and other economies have also plunged into recession, the dollar compared Fandao heat demand. The short-term, suggested that this adjustment may occur in the coming months.
For Obama office in January, Feroli said that since the macro level, Obama's office can introduce more economic stimulus, but may also increase the tax, but not next year, but not until after economy improved slightly. Also, some people worry that Obama may be more conservative in free trade, but I do not think there will be many new protections Feroli introduced, but it must be relieved now have some measure of protection can also more. The micro level, Feroli said, Obama came to power may be the snuff, pharmaceuticals and other disadvantaged sectors, because it may mean tighter regulation. At the same time the power of unions may be more. About the Author
I am Frbiz Site writer, reports some information about steel billet , tungsten powder.
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